Saturday, October 11, 2014

The Sands of the Middle East are Changing once Again



The above video gives a good overview of how the sands of the Middle East have changed since the death of the Prophet Mohammed in 632 AD.  Conquering powers come and go as can be seen (This happens in other places in the world as well of course).  Is ISIS the latest conqueror?  It now controls Eastern Syria and Western Iraq and has been engaged in a fierce battle in the Syrian Kurdish border town of Kobane.  Kobane is just two miles from the Turkish border where the Turks have hesitated to intervene.  The Turks may not care for ISIS but they are also concerned about troubles with their own Kurdish population.  


The interests of all these groups, Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds, Turks, Arabs, Iranians, Israelis, Yazidis, and others are complex and cannot be resolved with bombs.  Outside military intervention by the US and other countries only makes matters worse.  


ISIS would not exist without the 2003 US invasion of Iraq. al Qaeda's roots go back to the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.  The Islamic Republic of Iran's roots date back to the CIA overthrow of the democratically elected government there in the 1950's and the subsequent support of the Shah who brutally suppressed his people.  The people of the Middle East have been better off when they were free of outside intervention. 


**Update**


A Fox News poll has come out saying that a majority of the US Public now favors sending US troops into fight ISIS.  Polls can be used as propaganda tools as well as to inform the public.  A CBS/NYT Poll from Sept. 19 shows that a 62% of Republicans support sending ground troops into Iraq where 39% of the total population do (Kevin Drum from Mother Jones added the expletive).  Are Republicans itching for a new war in the Middle East, at least if Jeb Bush is elected in 2016?


 
**Related Posts**

The World Wars and Today's Wars 

 

9/11 Aftermath Survey

 

We've All Neglected Our Wars (Me Too)

 

Glenn Beck Is Going To Hold A Rally In Israel This Summer Called 'Restoring Courage'

 

What is Sanity?

Sunday, September 28, 2014

The Fourth Year of CSI wo DB

It's that time of year again. To review the top posts the of the last year and how the traffic has changed according to Google Analytics.  The total number of sessions has decreased by 4.55% but the number of users of this site has increased by 11.03%.  The top post from the last year are seen below.


Sep 29, 2013 - Sep 28, 2014
17.7%82.3%
Sep 29, 2012 - Sep 28, 2013
29.4%70.6%New Visitor2,513 Sessions (70.6%)




10. First Time I Heard Multivariate Analysis and Multicollinearity on Mentioned on TV

A  humorous look at statistical issues thanks to the Daily Show.  

9. Two Years Ago in Stanton Heights


This post from 2011 still gets some traffic on the shooting of three police officers in my neighborhood by a right wing radical.







8. Income and Life Expectancy. What does it Tell Us About US?

My all time most read post on life expectancy and income thanks to a link on the BBC website for the program The Joy of Stats.  The link is not there anymore but it still gets some traffic.






7. Global Warming, Wikileaks, and Statistics: What Barry Sanders Can Teach Us

The second all time most read post using sports statistics to explain a complicated phenomenon like global warming received a few more views than the first all time most read.

6. Hitler, Napoleon, and Stalin: Outsider Despots

This post is from this year on the history of three outsiders who exploited power vacuums to become absolute rulers of their countries.  Their similarities and differences are described.



5.  The World Wars and Today's Wars

This post is related to the number 6 post on this list as it is the 100th anniversary of the First World War and many of today's problems in the Middle East are tied to what happened 100 years ago.



4.  Bullying & Society

A post from 2010 where I argued that bullying is a reflection of society's greater ills. 

3. A Geographical Represenation of the Mode and Ethnicity

A post from last November on ethnicity in the United States and how it corresponds to other regional differences.







2. Correlation with the Number of Hate Groups per Million, Poor Health Suggests More Hate 

A look at the concentration of hate groups in each state and health outcomes.







1. A Wave of Hate Groups in California? No in Washington, DC

This post managed to make the all time most viewed list.  The number of hate groups in the US in each state is standardized by the size of each state's population.  The results are surprising.



**Related Posts**

Three Years of CSI Without Dead Bodies

 

The Second Year of CSI without Dead Bodies

 



One Year of CSI Without Dead Bodies


 

My (Quarter Year of) Blogging in Review


CSI senza cadavere (my first post)


 



Monday, September 22, 2014

New Economic Data on Pennsylvania Coming

KRC_MAP_LivingOnTheEdge  
The Keystone Research Center has released a report detailing how the income share for Pennsylvania's middle class has shrunk since 1978 in each county. The full text of their press release is below. New Census data on the uninsured for Pennsylvania and it's counties for 2013 will be out tomorrow to give us a glimpse of how the Affordable Care Act has impacted our state.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
SEP. 16, 2014
Media Contact: Mark Price, 717-255-7158, price@keystoneresearch.org
Middle Class In Every Pa. County Has Shrunk Since 1970s
Meanwhile, top incomes in every county have surged
HARRISBURG, PA (Sept. 16, 2014) — Pennsylvania’s middle class is smaller, while the
top 1% of earners enjoy a larger share of income, in every county in Pennsylvania today
as compared to the late 1970s, according to a new report from the Keystone Research
Center.
“This report quantifies what most working Pennsylvanians have sensed for years. It’s
harder today to find a job that pays enough to lift a family into the middle class,” said
Mark Price, KRC’s labor economist and coauthor of the report. “Traditional gateways to
a middle-class income such as a manufacturing job, or more broadly a job with union
representation, are less common today than they were a generation ago.”
The Center’s report finds that:
The counties or county groups with the largest percent decline in the share of
households with middle-class incomes are:
o Delaware (only half (50.9%) of households in the middle-class, a decline of
more than a fifth (20.9%) since the late 1970s);
o Philadelphia (43.1% in the middle class, a shrinkage of a fifth (20.2%));
o Columbia, Luzerne, Montour & Northumberland (53.3% in the middle
class, down by nearly a fifth (19.3%));
o Bucks (56.8% middle-class share, a shrinkage of more than a sixth (17.6%));
o Erie (55.1% middle-class share, down a sixth (16.7%));
o Chester (54.8% middle-class share down nearly a sixth (15.9%));
o Westmoreland (55.6% in the middle class, down by 15.8% to);
o Allegheny (53.0% in the middle class, down 15.6%);
o Armstrong & Indiana (53.7% middle-class share, down 15.6%);
o Lebanon (58.2% middle class, a 15.0% decline); and
o Centre (half of households in the middle class (50.1%), down 15.0%.
The counties or county groups with the largest middle-class share in 2010-12 are:
Cumberland & Perry (59.3%); Adams, Franklin & York (58.8%); Schuylkill
(58.6%); Lebanon (58.2%); Butler (58.1%); Cameron, Clarion, Clearfield, Elk,
Forest, Jefferson, McKean, Potter & Venango (58.1%); Bedford, Blair, Cambria,
Fulton, Huntingdon & Somerset (58.0%); Lancaster (58.0%); Clinton, Juniata,
Mifflin, Lycoming, Snyder & Union (57.6%); and Crawford & Warren (56.8%).
The counties or county groups with the smallest middle-class share in 2010-12 are:
Philadelphia (43.1%); Centre (50.1%); Delaware (50.9%); Allegheny (53.0%);
Columbia, Luzerne, Montour, & Northumberland (53.3%); Armstrong & Indiana
(53.7%); Chester (54.8%); Fayette, Greene & Washington (54.9%); Erie (55.1%);
Dauphin (55.3%); Bradford, Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Sullivan, Susquehanna, Tioga, Wayne & Wyoming (55.3%).
“This report builds on our previous work examining state-level trends in incomes by
looking at the growth of top incomes in every one of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties,” said
Estelle Sommeiller, a socio-economist at the Institute For Research in Economics and
Social Sciences in France.
“What is evident in this new data across rural, urban and suburban counties in
Pennsylvania is a striking surge in top incomes. In 1978, the share of total income
captured by the top 1% of taxpayers did not exceed 10% in any county in Pennsylvania.
By 2011, the top 1% captured more than 10% in all but six counties,” said Sommeiller.
With respect to top incomes the Center’s report finds that:
In NO Pennsylvania county between 1978 and 2011 did the income growth of the
bottom 99% exceed the income growth of the top 1%.
Over this same period, the real income of the bottom 99% of taxpayers grew in only
21 of the 67 counties.
Between 1978 and 2011, the counties with the greatest percent increase in real
income growth among the top 1% were: Forest (757%), Bucks (278%), Chester
(250%), McKean (245%), Greene (238%), Washington (211%), Bradford (208%),
Potter (203%), Delaware (202%) and Susquehanna (193%).
The 10 counties with the largest share of all income earned by the top 1% in 2011
are: Forest (33.9%), McKean (25.2%), Somerset (21.0%), Montgomery (20.3%),
Allegheny (20.0%), Delaware (18.7%), Philadelphia (18.1%), Potter (18.0%),
Greene (17.9%) and Chester (17.6%). The 10 counties with the smallest share of all income earned by the top 1% in 2011
are: Franklin (11.1%), Bedford (10.7%), Lebanon (10.3%), Fulton (10.0%),
Huntingdon (9.9%), Carbon (9.9%), Monroe (9.6%), Snyder (9.5%), Juniata
(9.1%) and Perry (6.7%).
"Taken together,these trends – the shrinking middle class and the rapid rise in top
incomes – are quite troubling. Their reversal requires urgent action by policymakers in
Harrisburg and Washington,” Sommeiller said.
This data points clearly to the need for policymakers to raise the minimum wage in
Pennsylvania, which today has 15 percent less purchasing power than it did in 1979.
Such a move would be a modest first step to push more working families closer to the
middle class,” Price said.
Read the full report at http://keystoneresearch.org/publications/research/divergentfortunes

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Single Payer Alive and Well in Massachusetts

Donald Berwick ran a campaign for governor of Massachusetts (home of Romneycare the model for the Affordable Care Act) on a single payer platform.  Previously he ran the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid services in the Department of Health and Human Services.  He ran against better funded candidates State Attorney General Martha Coakley (who had lost the special election for Ted Kennedy's Senate Seat to Scott Brown) and State Treasurer Steven Grossman.  Most polls had Berwick in the teens to the single digits as can be seen in the data tracked by Real Clear Politics.  The final results had him at 21.1% which suggests an upswing of support. 

There was no exit polling to monitor the true impact of Berwick's campaign on the voters.  The pre-election polls restricted their samples to who they thought would be likely voters.  The results suggest that Berwick brought in new voters.  Just because Berwick did not win does not mean he did not have an impact. 

The same day as the Massachusetts primary, Zephyr Teachout ran a primary challenge to New York governor Andrew Cuomo and received 30% of the vote. She discusses her campaign below.  Her campaign received more attention than Berwick's.  But it's at least as impactful.

Polling Data

PollDateSampleCoakley Grossman Berwick Spread
Final Results----42.436.521.1Coakley +5.9
WBUR/MassINC9/2 - 9/7234 LV412012Coakley +21
Boston Globe9/2 - 9/3400 LV472513Coakley +22
UMass Lowell/7News8/25 - 8/31685 LV52209Coakley +32
WBUR/MassINC8/24 - 8/31340 LV47236Coakley +24
Boston Globe8/17 - 8/26347 LV462410Coakley +22
Suffolk/Boston Herald8/21 - 8/24400 LV423016Coakley +12
Boston Globe8/10 - 8/19358 LV452410Coakley +21
Boston Globe8/3 - 8/12357 LV452110Coakley +24
Boston Globe7/27 - 8/5361 LV45189Coakley +27


**Related Posts**

Health Care Law - New Rasmussen Poll Down the Memory Hole 

POLL: Dislike of healthcare law crosses party lines, 1 in 4 Dems want repeal - TheHill.com (But Doesn't Ask Why)

Personal and Medical Bankruptcies: A Follow Up

The Affordable Care Act Having an Impact in Some States but not Pennsylvania

National, State, and County Uninsured Estimates

 

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Single Payer Petition

I have been busy with teaching and working so it's been harder to find time to blog but I have been using examples from the blog to teach with.  My organization, Healthcare for all PA is circulating an online petition.  You can sign it here.  

http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/singlepayer

Signing closes on Tuesday 9/9.  

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Testing Fairness, Outliers, and Racism

Oftentimes the importance of an issue isn't realized until it hits home.  The film Stand and Deliver tells the story of math teacher Jaime Escalante who's students (20 in total) all passed the advanced placement (AP) Calculus test in the 1980s.  The education testing service (ETS) (which administers the AP test as well as the SAT and a host of other standardized tests) thought the results were an outlier and launched an investigation into whether or not the students cheated on the exam.  In the clip above, Escalante (played by Edward James Olmos) confronts the investigators (one of them is played by Andy Garcia) from ETS and questions the motives behind the investigation.  He argues that the results would not be questioned if the students were from Beverly Hills.  The investigation later proved that the students passed the test legitimately as the students had to retake the test and all passed with a score of three or more.  The ETS investigators were just doing their job and anomalies have to be investigated but the way in which they are investigated can show bias.


Bias in testing is a universal problem and how the results are interpreted is certainly an inflammatory issue with a lot of time and energy spent to correct and quantify it.  As the prevalence of high stakes testing has increased, authentic cases of cheating have occurred as school funding is now tied to the results of those tests under the No Child Left Behind Act.  Recent cases of cheating on standardized tests have involved the principals and teachers supplying the answers to the students in hopes of improving school funding.  The photo below is of an art installation of an education student's opinion of high stakes testing.



The issues have changed little since Escalante's passed the AP test.  Policy makers often use the results of tests to demonstrate With the new ways tests are now administered the potential for cheating and questioning of results should increase exponentially. 


**Related Posts**

 

Testing Question

 

The Audacious Epigone

 

A Morsel of Mensa Measurement

 

ADHD, Genetics, and Causality: A Chicken-Egg Problem

 

 

Friday, August 8, 2014

Single-payer health care would better control costs (Letter to the Editor in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

I have a letter to the editor published in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette in response to an editorial there on the closing of hospitals since 2000.  The image below is from the paper and is a $100 bill being used as a tongue depressor.

The Frayed Safety Net editorial does raise some important issues in the availability of medical services in Allegheny, Beaver, Fayette, and Westmoreland counties since 2000. It cites the ‘decade’s long decline’ in the population of the four counties as the reason for 11 out of the 39 hospitals being closed since 2000. While it is true that the population in these four counties has decreased 13.9% since 1980 to 2012 (the most recent year estimates are available from the Census Bureau) it has only decreased 4.2% since the year 2000. The closure of hospitals since 2000 has resulted in a 28.2% decrease (11 divided by 39) in the number of hospitals which is disproportionate to population decline even if you consider the change since 1980. It seems that cost is a much bigger factor driving hospital closures than population. 

The editorial was right to commend The Cleveland Clinic for building clinics in places where they had to close hospitals. The Clinic is a true non profit organization dedicated to serving their populations. UPMC and Highmark, while technically also non profits, often behave as Fortune 500 companies as has been shown in the current battles these organizations are involved. A for profit healthcare system cannot adequately serve their populations whether it be under the Affordable Care Act or not. A single payer system is far more efficient in providing care and controlling costs.

Paul Ricci
Stanton Heights
Statistician
Healthcare For All PA 

**Related Posts** 

Pennsylvania's Uninsured Rate at an All Time Low?

 

The Affordable Care Act Having an Impact in Some States but not Pennsylvania

 

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) having little effect on PA’s Uninsured Rate So Far

 

How do the States Stack Up on Infant Mortality? (Cross Post with PUSH)