Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Podcamp Pittsburgh XI

After a four year hiatus, I will be presenting at Podcamp Pittsburgh.  For those of you who do not know PodCamp is a social media conference where practitioners share their tricks of the trade.  It is on Saturday and Sunday, August 13 and 14 and will be held at Point Park University from 9 to 5.  Lunch is provided. 

Members of local media often present and attend.  Below is a current list of available sessions (they are still taking submissions for sessions so if you have an idea you can submit it here).  I will be presenting a session on Presenting and Understanding Statistics in Social Media.  It is a great networking as well as a learning opportunity.  You can see my past session below.  The focus of this years talk is a little different.


PCPGH11 Sessions



Saturday Schedule

HUB ROOM 1 ROOM 2
9:00 Keynote  ////////////  ///////////
10:00 State of Podcasting The State of Digital: Then, Now and Beyond Social Media 101: Basics of Social Media
11:00
Podcasting 101/201: Podcasting Basics Blogging 101: Building Your Brand With Blogging
12:00 LUNCH LUNCH LUNCH
1:00 Fashion Blogging in the Worst Dressed City in America Podcasting 301: Tips, Tricks, and Hacks Blogging 201: Getting Started with WordPress
2:00
Visuals for Your Media Blogging 301: Making the Move to Self-Hosted WordPress
3:00
Presenting and Understanding Statistics in Social Media Blogging with Humor
4:00 Day 1 Wrap-Up  /////////////  ////////////

And the schedule for Sunday.



Sunday Schedule

HUB ROOM 1 ROOM 2
9:30 Day 2 Kick-Off  ////////////  ////////////
10:00 Tracking Your Podcast Growth Reboot: Starting a Podcast After an Absence Managing Blogs with Evernote
11:00
Burnout and the Cult of Busy
12:00 LUNCH LUNCH LUNCH
1:00 360 and Virtual Reality: The Future of Media Punk Rock Entrepreneur
2:00
Project Management Meets Social Media: Trello and Slack Integration in the Workplace
3:00 Closing Remarks  ////////////  ////////////
**Related Posts**

My Raging Chicken Press Interview

WIUP FM Podcast on Single Payer Heathcare (Cross Post with HC4AllPA)

PodCamp Session Feedback Part 2-The Video of My Session Has Been Posted

PodCamp 6 Interview

Thursday, July 14, 2016

My Classmate's Story of Abuse


Shaun Dougherty, a classmate of mine at St. Clements grade school, has come forward with his story of abuse at the hands of one of the priests which is told on page 63 and 64 of the report.  The full text of the report can be read below.  Pictured below in our 5th grade class picture along with Shaun, the Priest in question, a nun who was a terror to us, and I.  The Diocese we were under, Altoona-Johnstown, received a scathing grand jury report from the state Attorney General.  The Diocese is now nay be investigated under the RICO statute (usually used to prosecute the Mafia).

My 5th Grade Class Picture


Below is Shaun discussing his abuse and the problems it has caused him. I should warn you it is fairly graphic.  He was very disappointed that State Sen. Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati removing the retroactive removal of the statute of limitations on priests being sued.
  

From Bill Cosby to Jerry Sandusky, there have been other shocking stories of individuals who were previously highly regarded to have sexually abused others and when we first hear about it we are always shocked.   Addressing the system that protects abusers is just as important as punishing the abusers themselves.  A report came out recently that Joe Paterno was told by one of Jerry Sandusky's victims about his abuse in 1976

The full grand jury report can be read below with stories of victimization by other priests.  I was not victimized by the Priest in question or any other priest.  As a victim of bullying I can sympathize with the pain of the victims.  I have often heard that if the Roman Catholic Church were to drop the celibacy requirement for priests (Priests were allowed to marry until the 11th century) and/or allow women priests (It never has) the problem would be solved.  While it would certainly help by giving the Church a larger pool of priests one should remember that married men ( ie. Jerry Sandusky) and to a lesser extent married and single women have been known to commit these crimes as well.  The whole culture of placing individuals on pedestals where they are above reproach needs to change.  Also the abusers (many of whom are victims of abuse themselves) need to find the right treatment.

**Update**

Shaun Dougherty was featured in a panel discussion on a local TV station on Catholic Church abuse.  I couldn't embed the program but you can view it on WJAC-TV's website here.

   **Related posts**

Two Investigative Films: Truth and Spotlight

Say it ain't so JoePa!

Religious Freedom and Single Payer Health Care Reform

Habemus Resegnum - We have a resignation

Bullying & Society

 

Thursday, July 7, 2016

What Effect Do 3rd Parties Have on Trump and Clinton?


Poll Organization
2 Way -
Trump v. Clinton
3 Way -
Trump v. Clinton v. Johnson
4 Way –
Trump v. Clinton v. Johnson v. Stein
Poll Type
Sample Size
USA Today/Suffolk
6
4
4
LV
1000
Rasmussen
-4
LV
1000
IBD/TIPP
4
1
1
RV
837
NBC/WSJ
5
1
1
RV
1000
Quinnipiac
2
2
2
RV
1610
PPP
4
4
4
RV
947
ABC/WaPo
12
10
10
RV
836
Reuters/Ipsos
10
11
11
RV
1247
Gravis
2
RV
2162
Fox News
6
5
RV
1017
Economist/YouGov
4
5
5
RV
1069
Mean
4.64
4.78
4.75


Mean wo LV
5.44
4.88
4.83


Mean all 3 races
6.00
4.75
4.75


LV is Likely Voters for Poll Type. RV is Registered Voters for Poll Type.

Now that the primary season is over and the two major parties are gearing up for the conventions and Trump and Clinton's Vice Presidential picks, there have been a wealth of state and national polls looking at the state of the raceAll polls have asked respondents about the head to head or tow way match up between Clinton and Trump.  Given the high rate of dissatisfaction with the candidates this year, a number of polls have also asked respondents about the most prominent third party candidates, Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson as the Libertarian Candidate from New Mexico and Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party from Massachusetts.  

Any time a third party candidate makes significant gains in the polls the argument comes from the major parties "don't waste your vote on a candidate who's not going to win."  I thought I would take a look at how the polls compare when respondents are asked about a 2 candidate race (Trump and Clinton), a 3 candidate race (Trump, Clinton, and Johnson) and a 4 candidate race  (Trump, Clinton, Johnson and Stein).  The poll differentials between Clinton and Trump are presented in the table above for 11 polling organizations.  A positive value means that Clinton is ahead and a negative value (seen only in the Rasmussen poll) means that Trump is ahead.

Presenting the means of all the organizations regardless of whether or not they asked respondents about the 2, 3 or 4 person race shows little difference in the gap Clinton and Trump with mean gaps of 4.64%, 4.78%, and 4.75% respectively.  These were the Real Clear Politics polling averages as of yesterday.

Two polls (Rasmussen, and USA Today/Suffolk) restricted their samples to likely voters whereas the remaining organizations included all registered voters.  When those two organizations were excluded from the mean differences the gap changed to 5.44% in a 2 way race, 4.88% in a 3 way race, and 4.83% in a 4 way race.

To provide the best comparison between the three types of races, I restricted the table further to organizations who asked respondents about all three types of races, 2 person, 3 person, and 4 person in the same poll.  Likely Voter and Registered Voter polls were included in this analysis as the results of the one likely voter poll meeting this criteria did not radically differ from the other the registered voter poll.  The mean differences were 6% in a 2 way race, 4.75% in a 3 way race, and 4.75% in a 4 way race.  These differences could be tested in a one way within subjects ANOVA which is presented below in the R output.  The differences between the three types of races were significant with a p-value of 0.04 which means that at least one of the mean differences between Trump and Clinton is significantly different from one of the races.  Because the distribution of differences in the 3 and 4 way races are identical, we can be confident that the mean difference in the 2 way race between Clinton and Trump significantly differs from the difference in the 3 and 4 way race.  
_______________________________________________________________________
Error: Poll.Organization:number of candidates
                        Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)  
number of candidates     2  8.333   4.167    4.07 0.0404 *
Residuals               14 14.333   1.024                 
---
Signif. codes:  0 ‘***’ 0.001 ‘**’ 0.01 ‘*’ 0.05 ‘.’ 0.1 ‘ ’ 1
________________________________________________________________________________ 

What does all this mean? It means that when poll respondents are asked about a 3-way race between Clinton, Trump, and Johnson the gap between Clinton and Trump narrows by 1.25%. When respondents are asked about a race with Jill Stein added as a candidate the gap between Clinton and Trump does not change at all.  At the moment at least the major parties do not have too much to worry about with the third party candidates.  As a former Governor, Johnson may have somewhat more name recognition than Stein.  Which may or may not change as the race progresses.

**Update** 

Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight.com (run by Nate Silver) came out with a similar post to mine at almost the same time which shows that Gary Johnson hurts Clinton more than Trump.  You can read it here:

Election Update: Is Gary Johnson Taking More Support From Clinton Or Trump?

**Related Posts**

POLL: Dislike of healthcare law crosses party lines, 1 in 4 Dems want repeal - TheHill.com (But Doesn't Ask Why)


Health Care Law - New Rasmussen Poll Down the Memory Hole 

 

Adjusting Exit Polls? Assumptions Make All The Difference (Response to Charmin)